Trend or Cash

The rule is simple: hold SPY, QQQ, and IWM in equal shares only if each one's 3-month AND 6-month returns are both positive; otherwise sit in cash. Right now all three pass the test - SPY is up about 5% over 3 months and 13% over 6 months, QQQ is up about 1.5% and 18.5%, and IWM is up about 5.8% and 13.7%. Since all three are in confirmed uptrends, the strategy stays fully invested and split evenly across all three, which also matches the broader picture of a market near record highs with small caps and tech both showing strength. The portfolio is already very close to an even three-way split (about 33.5%/33.3%/33.2%), so this is just a small tune-up to true each position to exactly one-third of the portfolio - no shift to cash and no change in overall market exposure.

All three ETFs in the universe currently pass the trend filter: SPY is up 5.4% over 3 months and 10.1% over 6 months, QQQ is up 4.0% and 12.8%, and IWM is up 6.3% and 14.6% — every position has positive momentum on both the 3-month and 6-month lookback. Per the strategy, when all qualifying ETFs are in uptrends, we hold them split evenly and stay fully invested rather than sitting in cash. Current weights (SPY 33.3%, QQQ 33.8%, IWM 32.9%, ~0% cash) are already close to an even split, so this is a small rebalancing trade — trimming QQQ slightly and adding a touch to SPY and IWM — to true up to exactly one-third each. Recent news also supports the broad-based uptrend, with small-caps having a strong 2026 as AI-related spending broadens beyond mega-cap tech, and large-cap tech continuing to benefit from AI infrastructure spending. No cash allocation is warranted this week since the uptrend condition is satisfied across the board.

All three ETFs in the universe pass the trend filter this week: SPY is up 3.8% over 3 months and 7.8% over 6 months, QQQ is up 2.9%/9.8%, and IWM is up 6.1%/11.1% — all positive on both windows. Per the strategy, that means we stay fully invested and split the portfolio evenly across all three (about 33.3% each) rather than sitting in cash. The portfolio is already close to this even split (33.6% SPY, 32.5% QQQ, 33.9% IWM), so today's trades are small rebalancing tweaks to true up each position to exactly one-third of the portfolio, keeping cash near zero as the rules allow. No index is being favored over another — this is a mechanical trend-following rule, not a market call.

All three ETFs in the universe (SPY, QQQ, IWM) currently have positive 3-month AND 6-month returns, so per the strategy all three qualify to be held in an even split. Checking the portfolio, it's already almost exactly at the equal-weight target (SPY 33.5%, QQQ 32.9%, IWM 33.5%, ~0% cash), so no rebalancing trades are needed this week. We remain fully invested and diversified across large-cap (SPY), tech-heavy (QQQ), and small-cap (IWM) exposure, riding the broad uptrend. Note: there's been a bumpy AI-driven selloff in tech this past week, but the official 3/6-month trend readings that drive this rule remain positive for now, so we stay the course and will reassess at next week's decision.

All three ETFs in the universe qualify this week: SPY's 3-month/6-month returns are +10.5%/+9.2%, QQQ's are +16.6%/+15.0%, and IWM's are +12.6%/+14.1% — all positive on both horizons. The strategy calls for an even split across qualifying ETFs, and the portfolio is already almost exactly there (SPY 33.4%, QQQ 33.3%, IWM 33.3%, with less than 0.1% in cash). Since the current allocation already reflects the target and the drift from equal-weight is negligible, no trades are needed this week. We remain fully invested across all three uptrending index ETFs rather than sitting in cash, because the trend-following conditions for staying invested are clearly met.