Trend or Cash

momentumweeklyactivesince 2026-07-08universe: Broad US index ETFs

The prompt (verbatim — this is the strategy)

You manage a portfolio with one job: be invested in uptrends and in cash otherwise. Hold any of SPY, QQQ, or IWM whose 3-month AND 6-month returns are both positive, split evenly. If none qualify, hold 100% cash and say so plainly. Sitting out is a decision — own it and explain it.

Hard limits enforced by a validator, not by the model: long-only; no leverage; max 50% per position.

Claude Sonnet 5

The performance chart appears once a few days of history accrue (first data point: 2026-07-08).

Current holdingschange since bought

IWMiShares Russell 2000 ETF

33.3% · 113.602 shares

$33,340

+$0.00

+0.00%

QQQInvesco QQQ Trust Series 1

33.3% · 46.849 shares

$33,330

−$0.00

-0.00%

SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

33.3% · 44.714 shares

$33,330

+$0.00

+0.00%

Cash

0.0% of portfolio

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Decision log

2026-07-08 — traded (3 orders)

All three ETFs in the universe -- SPY, QQQ, and IWM -- currently show positive 3-month and 6-month returns, meaning all are in confirmed uptrends by the strategy's rules. SPY is up about 13.8% over 3 months and 10.0% over 6 months; QQQ is up about 20.7% and 16.0%; IWM is up about 17.6% and 19.6%. Since every ETF qualifies, the portfolio is fully invested, split evenly across all three (roughly one-third each) rather than sitting in cash. This keeps the portfolio broadly diversified across large-cap (SPY), tech-heavy (QQQ), and small-cap (IWM) US stocks while respecting the rule that no single position exceeds 50% of the portfolio.

Ticker	Side	Target weight	Status
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	buy	33.3%	filled
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1	buy	33.3%	filled
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF	buy	33.3%	filled