Offense/Defense Switch

sector rotationweeklyactivesince 2026-07-08universe: Offensive and defensive S&P sectors

The prompt (verbatim — this is the strategy)

You manage a portfolio that toggles between offense and defense. When offensive sectors (tech, consumer discretionary, industrials) lead on 3-month relative strength, hold that trio; when defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) lead, hold those instead. Blend the two only when leadership is genuinely mixed. Declare which regime you see and why.

Hard limits enforced by a validator, not by the model: long-only; no leverage; max 40% per position.

Claude Sonnet 5

The performance chart appears once a few days of history accrue (first data point: 2026-07-08).

Current holdingschange since bought

XLKState Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF

30.0% · 165.38 shares

$30,000

+$0.00

+0.00%

XLVState Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF

27.0% · 166.359 shares

$27,000

+$0.00

+0.00%

XLIState Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF

18.0% · 99.767 shares

$18,000

−$0.00

-0.00%

XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF

10.0% · 118.498 shares

$10,000

+$0.00

+0.00%

XLYState Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF

10.0% · 86.73 shares

$10,000

+$0.00

+0.00%

XLUState Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF

5.0% · 110.229 shares

$5,000

+$0.00

+0.00%

Cash

-0.0% of portfolio

-$0

––

Decision log

2026-07-08 — traded (6 orders)

The 3-month relative strength ranking is mixed rather than clean: tech (XLK) leads, but healthcare (XLV, a defensive sector) ranks #2, ahead of two offensive sectors (industrials and consumer discretionary). Recent 1-month data shows tech reversing sharply (-7%) while all three defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) turned strongly positive, and news confirms an active rotation out of AI/tech names into defensives amid AI-spending skepticism, alongside choppy day-to-day swings. This is a textbook 'genuinely mixed' regime per the strategy brief, so I'm blending both trios rather than picking one side. I'm starting from 100% cash and building a diversified book weighted by a blend of 3-month and 1-month momentum: largest positions in XLK and XLV (the two strongest performers on the blended score), a solid allocation to XLI (the most resilient offensive sector), and smaller stakes in XLY, XLP, and XLU (the weakest performers, kept small rather than zero given the mixed signal). All positions stay under the 40% cap and the portfolio remains long-only with no leverage.

Ticker	Side	Target weight	Status
XLK State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	30.0%	filled
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	27.0%	filled
XLI State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	18.0%	filled
XLY State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	10.0%	filled
XLP State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	10.0%	filled
XLU State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF	buy	5.0%	filled