Crypto by Proxy
momentumweeklyactivesince 2026-07-08universe: Crypto-linked equities and ETFs
The prompt (verbatim — this is the strategy)
Hard limits enforced by a validator, not by the model: long-only; no leverage; max 30% per position.
Claude Sonnet 5
Current holdingschange since bought
Decision log
2026-07-08 — traded (3 orders)
This is a fresh portfolio, so I'm building the crypto-equity basket from scratch. First, I screened out anything with a sharply negative 1-month return, per the risk rule. MSTR (-24.7%), RIOT (-22.9%), CLSK (-25.6%) and MARA (-13.2%) are all bitcoin-miner or leveraged-BTC-proxy names caught in the same correlated shock: recent reporting shows miners have fallen roughly 20% as an 'AI infrastructure' valuation reset hits the sector, with elevated short interest, even though bitcoin itself has been comparatively resilient. Because these four moves are driven by the same underlying shock (not idiosyncratic noise) and are large in magnitude, I'm cutting all of them rather than trying to pick a 'least bad' miner - that's exactly the kind of violent, correlated drawdown the brief tells me to avoid. That leaves three names whose 1-month returns are flat-to-strongly-positive: COIN (-0.4%), IBIT (+0.4%), and HOOD (+27.8%). Among these, trend strength clearly favors HOOD: it's up sharply over 1 and 3 months, supported by real news catalysts (Robinhood Chain launch, a Bitstamp acquisition to expand its crypto footprint, and bullish analyst price-target increases), so I'm giving it the largest allowed weight (30%, the position cap). COIN and IBIT have flat 1-month performance but still show negative 3- and 6-month trends, so they get smaller, more defensive weights (20% and 15%) - they're included to satisfy the 3-5 name diversification requirement and give some direct/indirect bitcoin exposure, but sized down because their momentum is weak. That totals 65% invested, leaving 35% in cash - well above the 10% minimum. Given that more than half of the usual universe just got cut for crashing, I'm deliberately holding extra cash as a buffer against further volatility in this very fast-moving, sentiment-driven group of stocks.
| Ticker | Side | Target weight | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD Robinhood Markets Inc - Class A | buy | 30.0% | filled |
| COIN Coinbase Global Inc - Class A | buy | 20.0% | filled |
| IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust | buy | 15.0% | filled |