Conviction Buys

This strategy only buys stocks tied to congressional purchases disclosed in the TOP reporting bands (over $50,000 — i.e., the $50,001-$100,000 tier or higher). I reviewed all 40 filings in this week's disclosure packet, covering members like Gottheimer, Rulli, Salazar, Moskowitz, Taylor, Johnson, McGuire, and others. Every single transaction in the packet — buys and sells alike — falls into either the '$1,001-$15,000' band or the '$15,001-$50,000' band. The largest bands seen were Salazar's two Chubb (CB) purchases and a couple of sells, all capped at $50,000. None crossed into the $50,001+ tier that this strategy requires as a conviction signal. Because there are no qualifying large purchases this week, the strategy stays in cash and takes no new positions, exactly as intended when the disclosure data doesn't clear the bar. We'll revisit next week's filings for a genuine high-conviction, large-dollar buy signal.

This strategy only buys stocks tied to LARGE disclosed congressional purchases (over $50,000). Scanning this week's full disclosure list, every single reported purchase transaction — from Rep. Moskowitz's tech/consumer buys, Rep. Fields' NVDA/TSM buys, Rep. Newhouse's dozens of trades, and others — falls into the smallest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000), well below our $50,000 conviction threshold. The only transactions in large bands (Kevin Hern's $100k-$250k XOM trade, Debbie Dingell's $50k-$100k HONAV trade, etc.) were all SELLS, which this strategy ignores. Since no qualifying large purchase exists in this data, there's nothing new to buy. The current LLY position was never backed by a large buy signal (the only related disclosure this period is a small partial SELL by Rep. Newhouse), so it doesn't meet this strategy's holding criteria either. We're exiting LLY and holding cash until a genuinely large (>$50k) congressional purchase disclosure appears.

Scanning all congressional disclosures this week, only one purchase clears this strategy's 'large' threshold (over $50,000): Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA31) bought LLY in the $50,001-$100,000 band (trade date 6/10/2026, filed 7/2/2026). Every other disclosed buy in the packet -- from Reps. Moskowitz, Newhouse, Fields, Meuser, Larsen, Doggett, and others -- falls in the small $1,001-$50,000 bands, which this strategy is designed to ignore since size signals conviction. The only other transactions in bands above $50,000 (Kevin Hern's XOM, Debbie Dingell's HONAV) were sells, not buys, so they don't qualify for a long-only conviction strategy. That leaves LLY as the single name warranting a position this cycle -- and we already hold it. The only action needed is a small trim: our current LLY weight (25.55% of NAV) sits just above the strategy's hard 25% max-position cap, so we're selling down to exactly 25% to stay compliant with risk limits, not because conviction has changed. Fundamentally, Lilly continues to post strong results (55% revenue growth last quarter, raised full-year guidance) supporting the thesis behind Cisneros's purchase. No new names are added since no other large purchase was disclosed.

Scanning all 44 disclosed House transactions in this packet for BUY-side trades in the top disclosure bands (over $50,000), only one qualifies: Rep. Gilbert Cisneros (CA-31) reported buying Eli Lilly (LLY) in the $50,001-$100,000 band, trade dated 2026-06-10. Every other buy in the packet (Newhouse's ~40 trades, Cisneros's other purchases, Cleo Fields' NVDA buys, etc.) was in the smallest $1,001-$15,000 band, which doesn't meet the 'large purchase' conviction threshold this strategy requires. The only other transactions in bands above $50,000 were SELLS (e.g., Kevin Hern's $100k-$250k XOM sale, Debbie Dingell's $50k-$100k HONAV sale), which this strategy ignores since it only acts on large purchases, not sales. Independent news confirms the Cisneros Lilly purchase and shows Lilly has strong fundamental momentum (accelerating GLP-1/obesity drug revenue, raised full-year guidance, multiple recent price-target hikes), supporting the buy signal rather than contradicting it. Given there's only one qualifying large-purchase signal, I'm concentrating the equity sleeve in LLY at the 25% maximum position size allowed by the risk limits, leaving the rest in cash until more large disclosures appear. The current BIIB position has no supporting large-buy disclosure in this data (its only large-size disclosure was a SELL by Rep. Salazar, plus a small sub-$15,000 buy from Cisneros), so it no longer fits the strategy's buy-conviction criteria and is being exited to fund the LLY position.

The strategy only acts on congressional stock purchases disclosed in the top dollar bands — specifically transactions reported as over $50,000. I reviewed all 36 House PTR filings in this week's data packet, and every single trade (buys and sells alike) falls into either the $1,001-$15,000 band or the $15,001-$50,000 band. None reaches the '$50,001+' threshold required to qualify as a high-conviction signal under this strategy's rules. Examples of the largest bands seen — Maria Elvira Salazar's BIIB sell, Virginia Foxx's ARLP sell, Maria Elvira Salazar's CRM buy, Gilbert Cisneros's AGX buy, Daniel Meuser's SPCX buy, and Maria Elvira Salazar's VOYG buy — all sit in the $15,001-$50,000 band, one tier below the qualifying threshold. Since size (not just direction) is the core signal this strategy relies on, and no purchase this week met the bar, there is no new conviction signal to act on. I'm leaving the existing BIIB position and cash untouched until a genuinely large (>$50k) purchase disclosure appears in a future data packet.