All-Weather Lite

This is a brand-new portfolio, so we're building the classic 'all-weather' mix from scratch: stocks for growth, long and intermediate Treasuries for recession protection, and gold plus commodities for inflation protection. The philosophy behind this approach is that no single asset wins in every environment, so a diversified investor is 'not overly dependent on a single asset class' and 'no single event can dominate the outcome.' We're tilting modestly toward what's been working and away from what's been struggling, while keeping every asset class represented so the portfolio still has ballast if the economy weakens or inflation flares up again. Stocks (SPY) get the largest slice, 32%, because they've posted strong 3-month (+13.8%) and 6-month (+10%) gains and current commentary notes the S&P 500 'has continued to grind higher' even amid mixed signals, though the 1-month dip keeps us from going even larger given the max 40% single-position cap. Commodities (DBC) get an above-baseline 18% weight: despite a rough last month, DBC is still up over 22% over six months, and the ongoing Iran conflict/Strait of Hormuz disruption has been described as fueling 'energy inflation' and driving investors into commodity ETFs as an inflation hedge - a real risk this portfolio needs to guard against. Gold (GLD) gets 15%: it has pulled back sharply on higher-for-longer rate expectations, but most major banks remain 'moderately positive about the gold price for 2026 and the years ahead,' and it still functions as a hedge against both geopolitical shocks and currency/debt-debasement risk. On the bond side, we favor intermediate Treasuries (IEF, 21%) over long bonds (TLT, 14%) because sticky inflation (~4.25%) and a Fed that just 'elected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%' with rising term premiums mean long-duration bonds face more downside risk right now; Schwab's own outlook states plainly that 'now is not the time to favor long-duration investments.' Still, we keep meaningful exposure to both bond buckets because they are the classic shock absorbers if growth suddenly weakens or a recession hits, which would push yields down and bond prices up. Overall this 32/14/21/15/18 split keeps every position within the 40% cap, uses no leverage, and holds nothing in cash, giving the portfolio a genuine shot at weathering either an inflationary energy-driven scenario or a growth slowdown, while leaning slightly into the assets with recent positive momentum.